Understanding and predicting Anthropocene range dynamics in the sea
Dr. Alexa Fredston-Hermann
Shifts in species’ ranges in recent decades have been recorded in all major biomes and taxa. These range shifts are broadly consistent with climate change: as the planet has warmed, species have shifted upward in elevation, deeper into the oceans, and toward the poles to remain within a suitable climate. However, climate alone cannot explain or predict the distributions of most species very well for many purposes in ecology and natural resource management. Drivers such as dispersal limitation, habitat availability, transient population dynamics, species interactions, and many other processes likely influence ranges at fine spatial and temporal scales. My research aims to advance understanding and prediction of range dynamics in marine species experiencing climate change. I will present results on temperature tracking of species range edges in the oceans, using decades of data for ~150 species, as well as ongoing work applying process-based models to forecast range shifts.